Long View Client Advisory - Global Chip & Memory (RAM) Shortages Driving Significant Price Increases

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The global semiconductor industry is currently experiencing one of the most severe memory (DRAM and NAND) shortages in its history. This shortage, driven primarily by unprecedented demand for artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure and a reallocation of manufacturing capacity, is directly impacting availability and pricing for PCs, servers, smartphones, and other hardware components.

As a result, manufacturers across the technology ecosystem are signaling significant cost increases and extended lead times, many of which will continue throughout 2026 and potentially into 2027.

What to expect

• Higher hardware procurement costs across virtually all categories containing DRAM or NAND (PCs, servers, networking appliances, mobile devices).
• Extended lead times for equipment dependent on standard memory modules.
• Potential allocation constraints, particularly for high‑volume or custom configurations.
• Frequent vendor repricing as suppliers respond to market volatility.

Recommended actions

• Plan purchases as early as possible to secure availability and avoid cost escalation.
• Review 2026 hardware budgets, incorporating anticipated 15–50% increases depending on category.
• Prioritize critical infrastructure upgrades, especially for memory‑intensive environments.

AI infrastructure dominating memory production

The rapid global expansion of AI data centers is monopolizing semiconductor manufacturing capacity, particularly for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and server‑grade DDR5. HBM requires roughly triple the production capacity of standard DRAM, constricting supply for consumer and enterprise hardware.

Major memory producers have shifted production toward high‑margin enterprise memory solutions, reducing output for general‑purpose DRAM and NAND.

Structural, not cyclical, shortage

Unlike past shortages driven by temporary disruptions, this is a strategic and long‑term reallocation of global wafer capacity. Demand from hyperscalers is consuming the bulk of available supply. Analysts expect structural constraints to persist well beyond 2026, with relief unlikely before new global fabs come online in 2027 or later.

Downstream production delays

As semiconductor lines prioritize HBM, shortages of conventional memory have evolved beyond price increases into full‑scale production delays for devices such as laptops, smartphones, and graphics cards.

Market pricing impact - DRAM and NAND

Industry forecasts project that DRAM and NAND prices will experience record‑setting increases in Q1 and beyond:

• Conventional DRAM contract prices: Up 90–95% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026.
• PC DRAM prices may more than double, setting a new historical record.
• NAND Flash contract prices: Up 55–60% quarter‑over‑quarter.
• Leading PC brands forecast 15–30% hardware price increases in 2026 due to rising component costs.
• Laptops and desktop memory kits (DDR5) have already seen prices more than double, in some cases exceeding the cost of a high‑end GPU.

Long‑term trend

Since 2024, DRAM and NAND have seen cumulative increases of 200–400%, with AI workloads expected to consume ~70% of all memory hardware production in the coming years.